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[EN-pr-sea-113] 2025 cherry blossom forecast (9th edition) announced

On March 21, Japan Meteorological Corporation announced the 9th cherry blossom forecast for 2025. The forecast is for this year’s flowering and full bloom of Somei-Yoshino cherry trees at approximately 1,000 locations nationwide, from Hokkaido to Kagoshima. The
flowering and full bloom forecast dates for all locations, as well as a flowering meter showing the cherry blossom growth process, are posted on the comprehensive weather website, Otenki Navigator. The next announcement is scheduled for March 27.

 

Cherry blossom trends for 2025
2025 9th Cherry Blossom Forecast Map
[Announced on March 21, 2025]
Cherry blossoms will bloom at or later than normal across the country

This season, cherry blossoms are expected to break dormancy later than normal nationwide. In northern Japan, they will make up for the delay after breaking dormancy, but in eastern and western Japan, the effects of the delay in breaking dormancy are expected to be felt, and many locations across the country will likely see average or later-than-average flowering. Compared to last time, the forecast has changed to higher temperatures in late March, so the expected flowering date nationwide has been brought forward by 1-2 days. Cherry
blossoms are expected to start blooming in Tokyo on March 24th, followed by the Kyushu and Shikoku regions.

[Eastern Japan/West Japan]

In Eastern Japan, temperatures were significantly higher than normal in October, higher than normal in November, average in December, higher than normal in January, and average in February. In Western Japan, temperatures were significantly higher than normal from October to November, average from December to January, and significantly lower than normal in February. The high temperatures from October to November are expected to have delayed the breaking of dormancy by about a week. Temperatures in Eastern and Western Japan are expected to be higher than normal in March.

The flowering period will be normal in eastern Japan, but later than normal in western Japan.
[Northern Japan]

In northern Japan, temperatures were significantly higher than normal in October, higher than normal in November, lower than normal in December, significantly higher than normal in January, and higher than normal in February. Due to the high temperatures from October to November, the period when the dormancy is broken is expected to be about one week late. Higher than normal temperatures are forecast from March to April.

The flowering season will be earlier than average.
Expected cherry blossom and full bloom dates for major cities in 2025
City Expected flowering date Flowering time difference from the average Expected full bloom date Full bloom difference from average Average flowering date
Sapporo Around April 26th -5 days  (earlier than average) Around April 30 -6 days 5/1
Aomori Around April 18th -4 days  (earlier than average) Around April 22 -4 days 4/22
Sendai Around April 5th -3 days  (earlier than average) Around April 10th -3 days 4/8
Tokyo 3/24開花 0 days Around March 30 -1 day 3/24
Kanazawa Around April 3 0 days  (average) Around April 9th 1 day 4/3
Nagano Around April 10th -1 day  (average) Around April 15th -1 day 4/11
Nagoya Around March 26 2 days  (average) Around April 4th 2 days 3/24
Kyoto Around March 28th 2 days  (average) Around April 6th 2 days 3/26
Osaka Around March 29th 2 days  (average) Around April 5th 1 day 3/27
Wakayama Around March 27 3 days  (later than average) Around April 4th 1 day 3/24
Hiroshima Around March 27 2 days  (average) Around April 6th 3 days 3/25
Kochi 3/23開花 1 day Around April 1st 2 days 3/22
Fukuoka 3/25開花 3 days Around April 4th 4 days 3/22
Kagoshima 3/24開花 -2 days Around April 5th 0 days 3/26

Current state (locations where blooming or full bloom has already been announced)

For information on cherry blossoms blooming and in full bloom in all prefectures, please click here.
Cherry blossom forecasts for 48 cities across Japan

 

Regional flowering trends
place 概況
Hokkaido Region Flowering will occur earlier than average in October, with temperatures much warmer than average in November, lower than average in December, and much warmer than average from January to February. Higher than average temperatures are expected from March to April, so flowering will occur earlier than average.
Tohoku Region Flowering will occur at or earlier than normal. Temperatures were much higher than normal in October, higher than normal in November, lower than normal in December, higher than normal in January, and normal in February. Higher than normal temperatures are expected from March through April, so flowering will occur at or earlier than normal.
Kanto and Koshin Region Temperatures in October were much warmer than normal, in November they were warmer than normal, in December they were normal, in January they were much warmer than normal, and in February they were normal. Temperatures in March are expected to be warmer than normal, so flowering will be about normal.
Hokuriku Region Temperatures in October were much warmer than average, in November they were warmer than average, in December they were cooler than average, in January they were warmer than average, and in February they were cooler than average. Temperatures in March are expected to be warmer than average, so flowering will be about average.
Tokai region Temperatures were much higher than average from October to November, average in December, higher than average in January, and lower than average in February. Temperatures are expected to be higher than average in March, so flowering will be about average.
Kinki Region Flowering will occur at or later than normal, with temperatures much higher than normal from October to November, normal in December, higher than normal in January, and lower than normal in February. Temperatures are expected to be higher than normal in March, so flowering will occur at or later than normal.
Chugoku Region Flowering will begin later than average in October, with temperatures much warmer than average, higher than average in November, average from December to January, and much lower than average in February. Average temperatures are expected in March, so flowering will begin later than average.
Shikoku Region Flowering will occur later than average in October and November, with temperatures much warmer than average, December and January about average, and February much cooler than average. Average temperatures are expected in March, so flowering will occur later than average.
Kyushu Region Flowering will occur later than average in October and November, with temperatures much warmer than average, while temperatures were normal or below average from December to January and much colder than average in February. Temperatures are expected to be higher than average in March, so flowering will occur later than average.

 

Flowering Meter

The flower buds that become cherry blossoms are formed in the summer of the year before they bloom, and they go through a period of dormancy, awakening (breaking dormancy), and growth before blooming. The “Flowering Meter” is information unique to Japan Meteorological Agency that visualizes the current stage of cherry blossoms before they bloom and reach full bloom, so that you can enjoy the process of cherry blossoms blooming in the spring.
 About the Cherry Blossom Flowering Meter (pdf)
2025 9th Flowering Meter
Nationwide flowering meters

 

How Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts cherry blossoms
The mechanism behind cherry blossom blooming
The timing of cherry blossoms’ flowering and full bloom is determined by the temperature change from the previous autumn. The flower buds that become cherry blossoms are formed in the summer of the year before flowering, and they go through two processes:
① dormancy and ② growth
. Even after the flower buds are formed, they do not grow immediately, but first go into dormancy. This is to survive the cold, short winters, and is a characteristic seen in many temperate plants other than cherry blossoms, in which they drop their leaves and minimize their vital activity before winter. Then, when exposed to a certain low temperature (-5 to 15°C) from autumn to winter, they sense that spring is approaching and wake up (break dormancy). After breaking dormancy, they enter the growth stage, and as the temperature rises in early spring, they grow toward flowering. At this stage, the higher the temperature, the greater the growth rate.
During dormancy, the flower buds do not appear to change in appearance, but as they enter the growth stage and approach flowering, the buds gradually begin to swell, the tips of the buds gradually turn yellowish-green, and just before flowering, the petals can be seen.
About the forecast method
To predict when cherry blossoms will bloom and reach their full bloom, we use a unique prediction formula developed by Japan Meteorological Corporation, which was developed based on past research into predicting the blooming and full bloom times of Somei-Yoshino cherry trees. We calculate low temperatures from autumn to winter, the state of cherry blossom growth, and accumulated temperature, and use past data for each forecast location to calculate the predicted dates for blooming and full bloom at that location.
Forecasted dates for flowering and full bloom
The predicted dates for flowering and full bloom are based on the observation standards of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s specimen trees, and are predicted as “the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers open on the specimen tree is the flowering date, and the first day when approximately 80% or more of the buds on the specimen tree are open is the full bloom date.”

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